Get various probabilities associated with each option on 4th downs (go for it, kick field goal, punt).
add_4th_probs(df)A data frame of decisions to be computed for.
Original data frame Data frame plus the following columns added:
Gain (or loss) in win prob associated with choosing to go for it (percentage points).
Probability of earning a first down if going for it on 4th down.
Win probability in the event of a failed 4th down attempt.
Win probability in the event of a successful 4th down attempt.
Average win probability when going for it on 4th down.
Probability of making field goal.
Win probability in the event of a missed field goal.
Win probability in the event of a made field goal.
Average win probability when attempting field goal.
Average win probability when punting.
# \donttest{
play <-
tibble::tibble(
# things to help find the right game (use "reg" or "post")
home_team = "GB",
away_team = "TB",
posteam = "GB",
type = "post",
season = 2020,
# information about the situation
qtr = 4,
quarter_seconds_remaining = 129,
ydstogo = 8,
yardline_100 = 8,
score_differential = -8,
home_opening_kickoff = 0,
posteam_timeouts_remaining = 3,
defteam_timeouts_remaining = 3
)
probs <- nfl4th::add_4th_probs(play)
#> Computing probabilities for 1 plays. . .
#> [16:42:44] WARNING: src/learner.cc:553:
#> If you are loading a serialized model (like pickle in Python, RDS in R) generated by
#> older XGBoost, please export the model by calling `Booster.save_model` from that version
#> first, then load it back in current version. See:
#>
#> https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tutorials/saving_model.html
#>
#> for more details about differences between saving model and serializing.
#>
#> [16:42:45] WARNING: src/learner.cc:553:
#> If you are loading a serialized model (like pickle in Python, RDS in R) generated by
#> older XGBoost, please export the model by calling `Booster.save_model` from that version
#> first, then load it back in current version. See:
#>
#> https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tutorials/saving_model.html
#>
#> for more details about differences between saving model and serializing.
#>
#> [16:42:46] WARNING: src/learner.cc:553:
#> If you are loading a serialized model (like pickle in Python, RDS in R) generated by
#> older XGBoost, please export the model by calling `Booster.save_model` from that version
#> first, then load it back in current version. See:
#>
#> https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tutorials/saving_model.html
#>
#> for more details about differences between saving model and serializing.
#>
#> [16:42:47] WARNING: src/learner.cc:553:
#> If you are loading a serialized model (like pickle in Python, RDS in R) generated by
#> older XGBoost, please export the model by calling `Booster.save_model` from that version
#> first, then load it back in current version. See:
#>
#> https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tutorials/saving_model.html
#>
#> for more details about differences between saving model and serializing.
#>
#> [16:42:48] WARNING: src/learner.cc:553:
#> If you are loading a serialized model (like pickle in Python, RDS in R) generated by
#> older XGBoost, please export the model by calling `Booster.save_model` from that version
#> first, then load it back in current version. See:
#>
#> https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tutorials/saving_model.html
#>
#> for more details about differences between saving model and serializing.
#>
#> [16:42:49] WARNING: src/learner.cc:553:
#> If you are loading a serialized model (like pickle in Python, RDS in R) generated by
#> older XGBoost, please export the model by calling `Booster.save_model` from that version
#> first, then load it back in current version. See:
#>
#> https://xgboost.readthedocs.io/en/latest/tutorials/saving_model.html
#>
#> for more details about differences between saving model and serializing.
#>
dplyr::glimpse(probs)
#> Rows: 1
#> Columns: 23
#> $ home_team <chr> "GB"
#> $ away_team <chr> "TB"
#> $ posteam <chr> "GB"
#> $ type <chr> "post"
#> $ season <dbl> 2020
#> $ qtr <dbl> 4
#> $ quarter_seconds_remaining <dbl> 129
#> $ ydstogo <dbl> 8
#> $ yardline_100 <dbl> 8
#> $ score_differential <dbl> -8
#> $ home_opening_kickoff <dbl> 0
#> $ posteam_timeouts_remaining <dbl> 3
#> $ defteam_timeouts_remaining <dbl> 3
#> $ go_boost <dbl> 3.688319
#> $ first_down_prob <dbl> 0.3269784
#> $ wp_fail <dbl> 0.03575731
#> $ wp_succeed <dbl> 0.3446303
#> $ go_wp <dbl> 0.1367521
#> $ fg_make_prob <dbl> 0.9752029
#> $ miss_fg_wp <dbl> 0.03068082
#> $ make_fg_wp <dbl> 0.1016282
#> $ fg_wp <dbl> 0.09986893
#> $ punt_wp <dbl> NA
# }